For more than a decade, Narendra Modi has been a towering figure in Indian politics. The BJP’s rise and continued dominance have been built almost entirely around his persona. But as he grows older, the cracks in this over-dependence are beginning to show. What once seemed like a well-oiled electoral machine now appears increasingly uncertain, confused, and vulnerable. And behind the scenes, the RSS—the ideological parent of the BJP—has reasons to worry.
The Leadership Vacuum
The first and most pressing issue is leadership. Modi has not allowed a clear successor to emerge. His centralised style of functioning ensured that no second-rung leader ever gained enough stature to be seen as a natural heir. Now, with age catching up, the BJP finds itself staring at a leadership vacuum. The party has no answer to the simple question: who after Modi?
Confusion Within the BJP
This vacuum has created internal confusion. Factions within the BJP are pulling in different directions. Some want the party to go back to its roots—an unapologetic Hindutva agenda. Others believe that only a strong governance-and-development narrative can resonate with a young, restless electorate. The result is an identity crisis, with no coherent roadmap. State-level setbacks, despite Modi’s personal campaigning, have only sharpened this confusion.
The RSS Dilemma
For the RSS, this is a moment of unease. The Sangh never wanted the BJP to become a one-man show, yet Modi’s larger-than-life image has sidelined the organisation’s influence. The RSS worries that once Modi exits the stage, its ideological hold over the BJP will weaken further. A leadership fight could push the party into disarray, leaving the RSS scrambling to maintain control.
The Weight of Unfulfilled Promises
Adding to Modi’s diminishing stature is the long list of promises that remain unfulfilled.
- Jobs: In 2014, Modi promised two crore jobs every year. A decade later, India’s unemployment rate remains among the highest in Asia, with youth unemployment hovering around 20% according to CMIE data. Far from mass job creation, lakhs of educated youth now chase even low-level government posts.
- Farmers’ Income: The pledge to double farmers’ income by 2022 has fallen flat. NSSO surveys and RBI reports reveal that real farm incomes have stagnated, while rising input costs for diesel, fertiliser, and seeds eat into already thin margins. Rural distress continues to push farmers toward cities in search of work.
- Black Money & Corruption: Modi campaigned in 2014 with a dramatic promise of bringing back ₹80–100 lakh crore of black money stashed abroad, with even the claim that ₹15 lakh would reach every citizen’s account. A decade later, not a rupee has reached common people, and corruption scandals continue to dog state-level administrations.
- Inflation Control: Modi once accused the UPA of failing to control “Mehengai.” Yet, under his rule, essentials like milk, cereals, cooking oils, and school fees have risen by 20% in just the last 12–15 months, leaving households financially strained.
- Development Model: The much-hyped “Make in India” campaign was meant to turn India into a global manufacturing hub. Instead, India’s dependence on China has deepened—imports from China have risen from about $51 billion in 2013–14 to over $100 billion in recent years, making a mockery of the “Atmanirbhar Bharat” slogan.
These unfulfilled promises have created a credibility gap. For years, Modi’s words alone could electrify his vote bank. Today, disappointment is eroding that trust, shrinking the aura of inevitability around his leadership.
Generational Disconnect
The BJP also faces a demographic challenge. The younger generation of voters is not impressed by tired slogans or perpetual temple politics. They are more concerned with jobs, inflation, freedom, and aspirations. A leadership dominated by ageing faces risks of looking out of touch. Unless the BJP can project fresh, credible leaders who speak the language of today’s youth, the party may find its support slipping away.
Signs of Decline
There are already signs that the Modi magic is waning. Electoral defeats in key states, despite Modi’s full-throated campaigns, suggest that his charisma is no longer enough to overcome governance failures. Inflation, unemployment, and foreign policy missteps weigh heavily on the public mood. Over-centralisation of power has stifled local leadership, leaving the BJP without strong regional faces to hold the fort.
The Road Ahead
What happens next? Three possible futures lie before the BJP. One, a messy succession battle after Modi, weakening the party from within. Two, the RSS is stepping in aggressively to regain control, pushing the BJP into a harder ideological corner. Three, a pragmatic pivot that elevates younger leaders, tones down the cult of personality, and balances Hindutva with real economic delivery.
Whatever path emerges, one fact is clear: as Modi ages, the BJP is no longer the confident, cohesive force it once was. And the RSS, for all its discipline, is worried that the empire it helped build might soon slip into disorder.
Your opinions are welcome. Please write in the comments section.
Disclaimer: This blog is an academic and analytical perspective on political trends. It does not intend to target or hurt the sentiments of any individual or organisation.
Categories: Blogs, Latest Videos, Reviews
Well summarised and very analytical