There is currently an overdose of news on Uttar Pradesh, mainly because the Prime Minister visits the state every second day. Information and analysis about other election-bound states are far less.

In this episode, I introduce the state of Punjab from an election viewpoint. This episode will assist people in knowing more about Punjab so that when the results start coming, one can relate the geography or the demographics.

I further analyze the data from the 2012 and 2017 Punjab Assembly elections. A few surprising results of the analysis –

1. The winners garner about 50% of the votes polled.
2. The runner-up gets about 37% of the votes.
3. Together they both get over 80% of the polled votes, making the ballot’s share of other contestants insignificant.
4. The fight is always between number one and two spots. The average difference of votes between the winner and runner-up is slightly over 12%.

I then do some arithmetic to show that if the Indian Nation Congress, in the 2022 election, gets about 15% votes less, then a hung assembly becomes a likely possibility.

Going with the chaos in Punjab, it is challenging to pre-judge the outcome. Remember, what I did is just arithmetic. Politics is what will prevail.

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